Topic II: Feedback with extreme events and morphodynamics
- Assessing the interaction between mean sea level changes and extremes; identification of future weather patterns that give rise to the most extreme storm surges and their possible relationships with large-scale circulation patterns; assessment of changes in the occurrence of large-scale patterns in ensembles of climate change simulations with global and regional climate models.
- Investigating morphodynamic response of coastal systems to sea level change, storm occurrence and river discharge; improve morphodynamic models to include processes relevant on decadal time scales; establish a physical knowledge base of coastal change on the scale of increasing relative sea level change; quantify the relationships between coastal land loss and the rate of sea level change by measuring and separating the components of relative sea level change due to subsidence (natural/man made), reduced sediment supply (from land/from sea) and sea level rise.
- Understanding the extent to which natural coastal systems are resilient or can adapt to sea level change by changes in the offshore and onshore morphology; estimate land loss through inundation for high-end climate scenarios in key regions; impact of anthropogenic actions on local sea level.
Approach
The work program is structured in four basic topics; work within each topic is expected to be addressed by several working groups as part of the SPP.
Coordinated by Universität Hamburg, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability