Topic III: Sea level projections
- Separating internal variability and anthropogenic causes of future spatial trend patterns; understand how changing oceanic conditions (circulation and sea level) affect the dynamics of outlet glaciers in ice sheets, e.g. due to heat advection; determination of patterns of sea level change originating from ocean circulation changes due to wind forcing, air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes; processes linked to the reaction of ocean circulation and sea level to melt water; effects of water mass changes in the deep ocean.
- Improving mass loss estimation from ice sheets; quantification of the key driving factors; improved description of ice sheet dynamics and the feedback between the ocean and ice sheets; tipping points for Greenland and western Antarctica ice sheets; investigation of effects of continental ice mass changes and feedbacks from solid Earth load deformations.
- Determining limits of sea level predictability as a function of space and time scales and the role of changing climate modes for sea level predictions; provide reliable uncertainties for sea level predictions and projections, including those for ice sheets and glacier projections; understanding regional inter-model sea level spread in climate models due to change in ocean properties (temperature, salinity, circulation, mass distribution), forcing functions and ensemble size.
- Determining sea level uncertainty information and upper bounds of sea level projections from an analysis of multi-model and multi-approach ensembles of sea level projections.
Approach
The work program of SeaLevelis structured in four basic topics, which are addressed by several working groups:
Coordinated by Universität Hamburg, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability