Topic II: Coastal risk management and adaptation pathways

This topic focuses on supporting coastal risk management decision making by developing and applying suitable decision analytical frameworks, together with sea level rise and extreme water level information. The integrated models developed in Topic 1 will be combined with adequate decision-making frameworks in order to assess costs and benefits of adaptation options, and to develop multiple adaptation pathways in response to (anticipated) impacts of sea level change. Decision analytical frameworks must thereby take into account the full range of inherent uncertainties in the processes of sea level change and socio-economic development, in order to avoid the risk of maladaptation (Eriksen et al., 2011).

The focus will be on large investment and long-term planning decisions within the two study regions. Work will, thus, proceed from a particular decision identified in a study region to selecting and adjusting appropriate decisions-making frameworks (e.g. benefit-cost analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, multi-criteria analysis, robust decision-making adaptation pathways etc.) and sea level rise information. This will be a highly interdisciplinary and interactive exercise among risk management and governance scholars that articulate sea level information needs based on the particular decision context, but also scholars of climate and geosciences, who articulate what can be provided based on the state-of-the art sea level science. Results of this exercise will be used to further shape the research conducted in WPA and B in later stages of the SPP SeaLevel.

Approach

The work program is structured in three basic topics. Work within each topic is expected to be addressed by several working groups as part of the SPP.

Topic I

Integrated modeling of coastal socio-economic impacts and adaptation

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Topic II

Coastal risk management and adaptation pathways

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Topic III

Coastal adaptation governance

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