Topic I: Integrated modeling of coastal socio-economic impacts and adaptation

This topic develops integrated models of human-environment interactions underlying sea level change, extreme events, impacts and responses of coastal communities including the consideration of novel adaptation options of coastal societies as well as increasing pressures of population and economic development in coastal areas (Nicholls et al., 2007; Scheffran et al., 2012; Scheffran and Remling, 2013; Wong et al., 2014; Brown et al., 2014). A special emphasis will be placed on large-area assessments for the two study regions as well as socio-economic impacts. Towards these ends a range of analytical tools (GIS, complexity science, simulation models, agent-based models and social network analysis) shall be applied to project the consequences of the sea level rise scenarios developed in WPA and WPB as well as the adaptation strategies taken including adaptive risk management as well as various forms of social interaction. This analysis will also be informed through the behavior and risk perception analysis conducted under Topic 3 described below.

  • For coastal erosion this will include modeling the links between human coastal management and shoreline dynamics (van den Berg et al., 2011) by, for example, coupling economic models of beach and shore nourishment decision making with coastline dynamics model (e.g., McNamara et al., 2011; Link et al., 2013; Hinkel et al. 2013).
  • For coastal flooding, models need to be improved on the response of individual households to increasing coastal flood risk (e.g. migration or accommodation) as well as on societal responses in terms of protecting against rising flood risks in the context of socio-economic development.

Approach

The work program is structured in three basic topics. Work within each topic is expected to be addressed by several working groups as part of the SPP.

Topic I

Integrated modeling of coastal socio-economic impacts and adaptation

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Topic II

Coastal risk management and adaptation pathways

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Topic III

Coastal adaptation governance

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